Probabilistic Enhancement of the Failure Forecast Method Using a Stochastic Differential Equation and Application to Volcanic Eruption Forecasts
We introduce a doubly stochastic method for performing material failure theory based forecasts of volcanic eruptions.The method enhances the well known Failure Forecast Method equation, introducing a new formulation similar to the Hull-White model in financial mathematics.In particular, we incorporate a stochastic noise term Comparison of Parameter